Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.
Significant Hurdles in the Selection Procedure
Several figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an offensive online group.
