Is the Entertainment Fading? This Decline of Open-Play Goals from Open Play

Football match action
The Wolves squad managed a decrease of 10 scores from open play than at this stage last season.

One of the biggest stories of England's top flight season so far has been the drop of scoring in open-play scenarios and how clubs are netting increasingly from set-plays as an alternative.

Looking at scoring methods to matchday 11 the prior season, there have been a drop of 39 scored in open-play and an increase of 26 from team set-pieces and spot-kicks, giving us 13 less overall.

Considering the bigger picture, the number of shots sides are producing have seen an incredible 370 fewer in open-play than this time previously.

Regardless of the notable jump in set-piece goals, records show just two more shots created from them outside of penalties, showing the efficiency clubs are at finding ways to score from dead-ball situations.

Scoring Rates Show an Interesting Narrative

Over 300 goals recorded in 110 matches so far calculates at 2.74 goals each match, if maintained for the whole season might be the smallest for five years, from five seasons ago (2.69 per game).

However, only under 200 goals coming in open-play averages out 1.78 per game and is heading to be the lowest for 16 seasons, since 2009-10 (1.76 average).

That campaign also marks the unique EPL season to witness goals scored more frequently from non-penalty set-pieces than the current rate of 0.77 per fixture (0.79).

Which Teams Account for This Change?

In terms of scoring from open play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have seen by far the biggest drop, netting a mere four in their first 11 fixtures, 10 fewer than at this stage last season.

Outside of Wolves, the EPL's fall in open-play scoring is very much a London thing, with five of the capital's seven sides scoring five or more goals fewer from open-play than last season.

To be fair, this is mainly because them netting lots of goals at the start of the previous campaign rather than them having difficulty to find the net in open play this campaign.

At the same time City have seen the most significant jump, with nearly all of their 23 goals so far coming in open-play.

Set-Piece Success

Looking at the promoted teams with the teams that went down they replaced. Sunderland the Black Cats have netted three extra scores in open play than the Saints achieved in matchday 11 on their way to the drop last season.

When it comes to scoring from dead-ball situations (excluding spot-kicks), the Gunners and the Blues have seen the most significant jump, with both sides compensating for the five fewer scores that they've netted in open-play with identical figures from set-pieces.

Man United have netted double the number goals from set-plays as they did in matchday 11 the previous campaign before Ruben Amorim took charge, while the Black Cats additionally are better at converting than the club they replaced they superseded.

Man City appear not to have received the memo about increasing scoring from set-pieces, because they've netted three fewer than last season, as have the Reds, though this may result from the altered approach they have tried to implement.

General Tendencies

Six sides – Arsenal, the Blues, Fulham, the Magpies, Spurs and West Ham – have been this term's primary examples by recording fewer scores from open play and more from set-plays, while Man City represent the unique club to buck the trend up to now by achieving the contrary.

It will be fascinating to watch if sides persist to depend greatly on set-pieces as matches continue or if they find again their overall inventiveness and commence converting increased totals in open-play also.

Carolyn Brewer
Carolyn Brewer

Maya Rodriguez is a business strategist with over 10 years of experience in digital transformation, helping companies innovate and grow in competitive markets.