Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
