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In October 2022, as Rishi Sunak assumed office as the UK's leader, he was the fifth British prime minister to occupy the position over a six-year span.

Unleashed on the UK by Britain's EU exit, this represented unprecedented political turmoil. So how might we describe what is unfolding in the French Republic, now on its fifth premier in 24 months – three of them in the last ten months?

The current premier, the newly reinstated Sébastien Lecornu, may have gained a brief respite on Tuesday, sacrificing Emmanuel Macron’s flagship pensions overhaul in exchange for support from Socialist lawmakers as the price for his administration's continuation.

But it is, in the best case, a short-term solution. The EU’s number two economic power is locked in a political permacrisis, the likes of which it has not experienced for many years – possibly not since the establishment of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no easy escape.

Minority Rule

Key background: ever since Macron called an risky early parliamentary vote in 2024, the nation has had a hung parliament separated into three warring blocs – the left, the far right and his own centrist coalition – none with anything close to a majority.

Simultaneously, the nation faces dual debt and deficit crises: its debt-to-GDP ratio and budget shortfall are now nearly double the EU threshold, and strict legal timelines to pass a 2026 budget that starts controlling expenditures are approaching.

In this challenging environment, both the prime ministers before Lecornu – Michel Barnier, who served from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.

In mid-September, the leader named his close ally Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which proved to be much the same as the old one – he encountered anger from both supporters and rivals.

To such an extent that the following day, he resigned. After only 27 days as premier, Lecornu became the shortest-lived premier in modern French history. In a dignified speech, he blamed political intransigence, saying “partisan attitudes” and “personal ambitions” would make his job virtually unworkable.

Another twist in the tale: just hours after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for another 48 hours in a last-ditch effort to secure multi-party support – a mission, to put it gently, filled with challenges.

Next, two ex-prime ministers openly criticized the struggling leader. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and leftist LFI refused to meet Lecornu, promising to vote down all future administrations unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu persisted in his duties, talking to everyone who was prepared to hear him out. At the conclusion of his extension, he appeared on television to say he believed “a path still existed” to prevent a vote. The president’s office announced the president would name a fresh premier 48 hours later.

Macron honored his word – and on that Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So recently – with Macron helpfully sniping from the sidelines that the country’s rival political parties were “fuelling division” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Could he survive – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a critical address, the 39-year-old PM outlined his financial plans, giving the Socialist party, who oppose Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were waiting for: Macron’s flagship reform would be suspended until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already supportive, the Socialists said they would not back censorship votes tabled against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the government should survive those votes, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, nevertheless, by no means certain to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS clearly stated that it would be seeking more concessions. “This move,” said its head, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

A Cultural Shift

The problem is, the greater concessions he makes to the left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, like the PS, the conservatives are themselves split on dealing with the administration – some are still itching to topple it.

A look at the seat numbers shows how tough Lecornu’s task – and future viability – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the far-right RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR seek his removal.

To succeed, they need a majority of 288 votes in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 deputies or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to support their motion, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in two years is, like his predecessors, toast.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Even if, by some miracle, the divided parliament musters collective will to pass a budget by year-end, the outlook afterward look grim.

So does an exit exist? Snap elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: surveys indicate nearly all parties except the RN would see reduced representation, but there would still be no clear majority. A new prime minister would confront identical numerical challenges.

Another possibility might be for Macron himself to step down. After a presidential vote, his replacement would disband the assembly and hope to secure a parliamentary majority in the ensuing legislative vote. But that, too, is uncertain.

Polls suggest the future president will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that France’s voters, having chosen a far-right leader, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

Ultimately, France may not escape its predicament until its leaders accept the new political reality, which is that decisive majorities are a thing of the past, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Numerous observers believe that cultural shift will not be possible under the existing governmental framework. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The regime … was never designed to facilitate – and even disincentivizes – the emergence of governing coalitions common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”