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For a brief period, Trump appeared to embrace a strong approach regarding Ukraine. Following issuing warnings of "serious consequences" in August in case Russia's president continued blocking ceasefire negotiations, Trump eventually enacted substantial penalties on Russia's biggest oil companies, these major energy companies. This decision significantly affected the Russian leader's ability to fund his war effort in Ukraine.

Yet, with his latest 28-point peace proposal for the conflict, reportedly developed by American and Russian officials without Ukraine's or European involvement, he has clearly gone back to his Russia-friendly stance.

Rewarding Aggression

This proposal would in practice benefit Putin for attacking Ukraine while putting the country's political freedom in danger. Although bold proclamations that "The nation's independence will be upheld", significant aspects of the proposal effectively undermine that essential autonomy. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his corporate background, the former president persists to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a simple land disagreement, as if ceding Putin a portion of Ukraine's land will satisfy the ruler. Yet, Putin's war is not only about dominating a charred area of deindustrialized area in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about Ukraine's political system – and Putin's clear desire to destroy it so it stops functions as an enticing example for the Russian citizens of the democratic governance that his growing authoritarian rule prevents them.

Border Surrenders

Although freezing in status the presently split regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's plan would require Ukraine to give up all of this eastern territory. In addition to benefiting Russia with area that its troops have been failed to seize in over a decade of fighting, this surrender would render Ukrainian defensive positions critically weakened.

This region is the location of Ukraine's well-known "stronghold system", the fortified defensive positions that are a critical obstacle to enemy progress. Trump would have the Ukrainian military abandon these defenses, providing Russian forces a open way to the capital if he later opt to restart the hostilities.

Defense Reductions

Additionally, in a move that would enable additional hostilities simpler for Russia, the plan would require Ukraine to reduce the scale of its armed forces from their existing approximately 800,000 troops to a cap of this lower number. Significantly, the plan imposes no equivalent constraints on Russian forces.

Apparently as a gesture to Putin's attempts to depict the nation's legitimate government as Nazis, the proposal states: "Any extremist doctrine and practices must be condemned and forbidden." Seemingly to underscore this aspect, it demands that "The nation will hold political contests in this period" of a truce. Meanwhile, Trump sets no requirement that Putin endanger his regime by allowing democratic processes in his own country.

Protection Assurances

Certainly, the proposal has Russia commit not to "invade other states" and to "incorporate in law its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". However considering that Putin has breached comparable treaties in the past – such as the Budapest accord, in which Russia committed to respect Ukraine's borders in exchange for giving up its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia agreed to a ceasefire and a handback of occupied areas in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – how should the international community trust Russia now?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on external protection assurances. While the proposal threatens a "strong joint armed reaction" in case the Russian Federation renew its aggression, and states that "The nation will receive strong security guarantees", the details range from vague to alarming. The proposal would not only prevent Ukraine alliance membership but also preclude member states from stationing forces on Ukrainian territory, thus precluding the reassurance force, likely led by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been depending to deter Russia from restoring his weakened troops, rearming, and reinvading.

World Reaction

A separate side agreement apparently would offer the nation with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any subsequent "major, planned, and continuous armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an attack jeopardizing the peace and security of the Western nations." That suggests a military response. But unlike a capable Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's most reliable defense against additional Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would hinge on the commitment of Nato leaders, like the US administration, to react through arms to Putin's hostilities, a response they have {not